U.S. Markets Brace for Inflation Data, Fed Pressure, and AI Earnings This Week

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U.S. Markets Brace for Inflation Data, Fed Pressure, and AI Earnings This Week


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TLDR

  • July CPI data arrives Wednesday, with economists expecting a 0.2% rise in overall and core inflation
  • The White House is considering removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook, raising central bank independence concerns
  • AI infrastructure firms Nebius, CoreWeave, and Cerebras all report earnings this week
  • The S&P 500 closed at record highs Friday after a strong jobs report calmed rate hike fears
  • Retail sales and consumer sentiment data round out a busy Friday

U.S. markets are heading into one of the busiest weeks of the summer, with inflation readings, Federal Reserve drama, and AI earnings all on the schedule.

The S&P 500 closed Friday at record highs, up 0.6% on the day. For the week, the Nasdaq rose 5.2%, the S&P 500 gained 3.6%, and the Dow added 3%. It was the best week for all three indexes since April.

E-Mini S&P 500 Sep 26 (ES=F)
E-Mini S&P 500 Sep 26 (ES=F)

Friday’s jobs report drove the rally. Strong employment numbers eased investor fears that the Fed would raise rates in the near term.

Inflation Data in Focus

The July Consumer Price Index report lands Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect both the overall and core readings to rise 0.2%.

Source: Forex Factory

CPI dipped in June, but the picture has shifted since then. Fighting in the Middle East has disrupted oil shipments, pushing energy prices higher.

The Producer Price Index follows Thursday. It tracks wholesale inflation and dipped in June after a sharp rise in May.

Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau said last month’s lower CPI was likely a one-off. He added that a reading in line with expectations would support the case for a September rate hike.


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Friday brings retail sales data and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Consumer spending rose 0.2% in June, though the savings rate hit a four-year low.

Fed Independence Under Pressure

The White House sent a letter last week saying the president was considering removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The move follows a Supreme Court opinion from late June that opened the door to such action.

White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said publicly that potential Fed Chair candidate Kevin Warsh and the president talk about the economy regularly. That kind of contact between a president and a Fed official is unusual.

Bond markets reacted. A rise in yields last week reflected concerns some observers tied to questions about Fed credibility.

AI Earnings Offer a Mixed Picture

Three AI infrastructure companies report this week. Nebius Group is up 122% year to date. CoreWeave has gained 25%. Cerebras Systems has fallen 35% since its IPO.

The mixed returns show that AI spending enthusiasm does not lift every company equally.

CoreWeave and Nebius both joined the Nasdaq 100 this summer. Nvidia has invested in both companies.

Cerebras beat expectations in its first quarterly report as a public company back in June.

Super Micro Computer reports Tuesday after releasing preliminary numbers showing profit margin growth and a record order backlog.

Applied Materials reports Thursday, closing out a key week for the semiconductor and AI hardware space.


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