TLDR
- RKLB stock is down 57% from its all-time high of $151, currently trading at $82.83
- Analysts have a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating with an average price target of $110.29
- Q1 2026 revenue hit $200.35 million, up 63.4% year over year
- Rocket Lab secured roughly $663 million in U.S. Space Force contracts recently
- Insiders have sold $362.8 million worth of stock over the past three months
Rocket Lab (RKLB) stock opened at $82.83 on Monday, sitting 57% below its all-time high of $151 set in June. Yet Wall Street isn’t giving up on it. The consensus analyst price target sits at $110.29, implying roughly 49% upside from current levels.
Rocket Lab USA, Inc., RKLB
The stock carries a “Moderate Buy” rating from analysts, with three Strong Buy ratings, thirteen Buy ratings, five Hold ratings, and one Sell rating. Morgan Stanley reaffirmed an “Overweight” rating in July. New Street Research set a $150 price target back in May.
Q1 2026 revenue came in at $200.35 million, up 63.4% year over year and ahead of analyst estimates of $189.65 million. The company matched the consensus loss estimate of $0.07 per share.
The backlog tells the bigger story. Rocket Lab reported 31 launch contracts in Q1 alone, more than it signed in all of 2025. Its total backlog reached $2.2 billion, up 108% from the same period last year.
Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $11.8 million, well ahead of the consensus estimate of a $26 million loss. At least seven analysts raised their price targets after those results.
Space Force Contracts Add Fuel
The contract wins are hard to ignore. Rocket Lab secured a $397 million deal with the U.S. Space Force to develop, launch, and operate advanced flat satellites using its upcoming Neutron rocket. A separate $266 million Space Force contract covers 12 suborbital launches and up to six additional launches, with the first expected before year-end.
In total, Rocket Lab has secured approximately $663 million in Space Force contracts recently. The Neutron rocket, central to the larger contract, has not yet flown.
Rocket Lab also completed its 92nd Electron mission and 13th launch of 2026, deploying a satellite for repeat customer iQPS.
Risks Are Real
The company is not profitable. It posted a net loss of $45 million in Q1, and analysts expect a full-year loss of $0.26 per share. The stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 53, well above the tech sector average of around 7.
Insider selling is worth watching. Over the past three months, insiders have sold 3.85 million shares worth approximately $362.8 million. SVP Arjun Kampani sold 88,000 shares in June at an average price of $107.98. Some of the selling was tied to tax obligations related to equity vesting.
Institutional investors hold 71.78% of the stock. PensionDanmark raised its stake by 224.2% in Q2, adding 28,358 shares to bring its total to 41,008 shares worth about $4.17 million.
The stock has a beta of 2.60, meaning it moves sharply. Its 52-week range runs from $37.57 to $151.00.
Rocket Lab reports Q2 earnings after the market closes on Monday, August 10. Investors will be watching revenue growth, the Neutron development timeline, and any update on the path to profitability.
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