The U.S. and Iran signed their memorandum of understanding on Friday, following the G7 summit in France, formally ending the conflict that has roiled energy markets since February.
Bitcoin climbed above $66,000 and Brent crude fell more than 4%, per CoinDesk data. The 14-point framework halted hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, committed Iran to abandon nuclear weapons development, and will begin gradual U.S. sanctions relief, with a 60-day window to reach a full deal.
The bitcoin move is not a pure geopolitics play, said Mike McCluskey, co-founder of tx, in a note to CoinDesk.
The deal’s impact is “less immediate than commonly believed.” The real catalyst, he argues, is whether a sustained drop in oil prices cools inflation enough to shift central bank policy, a process that works with a lag.
The agreement is interim, sanctions persist, and the US has threatened renewed strikes if nuclear talks fail. Traders burned by collapsed ceasefires in April and early June are, in his words, “prioritizing pattern recognition over headlines.”
A genuine shift, McCluskey says, would need three things: the accord to hold, the Fed to acknowledge oil-driven disinflation, and ETF inflows to continue. Two already look shaky, with the Fed turning hawkish on Wednesday, raising its rate projections rather than nodding to disinflation, and spot bitcoin and ether ETFs swinging back to outflows the same day.