TLDR
- Bitcoin briefly topped $67,000 before pulling back, showing caution around the Iran peace deal
- Ether, Solana, and XRP outperformed Bitcoin on the day
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs just ended four straight weeks of outflows totaling $5.4 billion
- The S&P 500 gained 1.7% and Nasdaq 100 rose 3.1% Monday on Iran deal news
- Traders are watching the June 19 Switzerland signing and Wednesday’s Fed rate decision
Bitcoin is not moving the way traders expected given the broader market rally tied to a US-Iran peace deal. While stocks and oil reacted sharply, crypto is hanging back.
Bitcoin traded at $65,845 on Tuesday, up just 0.3% over 24 hours. It briefly hit $67,217 before fading back below $66,000.
Other tokens did better. Ether rose 2.8% to $1,764. Solana gained 3.2% to $73, XRP added 3.2% to $1.22, and Hyperliquid’s HYPE led the majors, up 6.3% to $69.
Stocks Rally, Crypto Holds Back
On Monday, President Trump and Vice President Vance signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran. Trump said the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen on Friday.
Brent crude dropped below $83 a barrel. The S&P 500 gained 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 3.1%.
But Bitcoin barely moved compared to those markets.
“Oil dropped more than 4% and Asian equities jumped more than 3% on the ceasefire, but BTC barely budged,” said Jimmy Xue, co-founder and COO of Axis.
Xue described it as “a relief move that the market hasn’t fully bought yet.”
The caution is not without reason. This is the third truce attempt. Bitcoin fully reversed its gains after both the April ceasefire and the June 9 strikes collapsed.
Trump also said the deal could be called off if Iran does not agree to shut down its nuclear program.
Traders appear to be waiting for the June 19 signing in Switzerland before committing.
ETF Outflows Pause, But Buyers Haven’t Returned
US spot Bitcoin ETFs just wrapped up four straight weeks of outflows, totaling around $5.4 billion. One of those weeks saw a record $3.4 billion leave.
That streak has paused, but the institutional buyer has not clearly returned.
One positive signal: coins are steadily moving off exchanges into cold storage. That tightens available supply if demand picks back up.
Not everyone is cautious. Chris Perkins, incoming head of Franklin Crypto at Franklin Templeton, called it “a constructive setup for risk assets, including crypto.”
Perkins also pointed to the CLARITY Act, which would define whether digital assets are securities or commodities. Prediction markets currently put its passage at about 50/50.
Fed Decision Is the Next Major Test
Stock futures drifted slightly lower Tuesday as attention shifted from the Iran deal to the Federal Reserve.
The Fed begins its June meeting Tuesday, with a rate decision due Wednesday. It is the first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
Recent inflation data has come in hotter than expected, partly driven by higher energy prices from the Iran conflict.
For Bitcoin, the Fed decision Wednesday and the Iran deal signing Friday are the two events that will decide whether this bounce holds.
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