June of 2026 continues the worst monthly streak for XRP in several years, pushing the token toward extreme oversold conditions within the four-year 2022–2026 cycle. Against such a background, well-known trader Bob Loukas noted the inevitability of a technical rebound for the coin, but warned about the risk of its value falling by another 50% before the end of the year.
XRP’s monthly return statistics show that the asset has been falling since the start of 2026. In January, the token lost 10.6%, and in February it dropped another 16.2%, while in the first week of June alone, the decline has already reached 15.7%. The only green month this year was April, with a symbolic gain of 2.13%.
Why XRP and altcoins risk a further 50% decline, Loukas explains
The current prolonged plunge looks like a logical continuation of the bearish trend that began at the end of 2025, when after a strong July (+35%) and a moderate September (+2.49%), the coin closed the final three months of the year in negative territory.
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As a result, according to Loukas, the current decline has brought XRP’s total drawdown from the cycle highs to 71%, which, surprisingly, is slightly better than most other altcoins, which have lost even more.
Looking at the XRP price chart, with the token currently trading around $1.12, RSI indicators confirm Loukas’s thesis and show bullish divergences amid strong seller exhaustion in June. Historically, after similar prolonged declines, the token has demonstrated powerful rebounds.
For example, in July 2023, after a weak June, the coin rose by 47.6%, while in November 2024, after a series of red months, it delivered an explosive 281.7% rally. However, Loukas emphasizes that any possible local growth would only be a temporary pause.
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Since the broader market structure remains downward, while Bitcoin is showing weakness on weekly timeframes, the analyst expects a global bottom to form only closer to autumn or winter 2026. Until then, XRP retains the potential to fall by half from current levels, while any attempts at growth are likely to be sold quickly by large players.