Several on-chain indicators are pointing toward a major comeback for Bitcoin (BTC), with key health checks like short-term holder losses eliminated and sustained profit-taking absorbed without price deterioration turning positive for the first time in three years.
The cycle indicator (a major long-term growth indicator) also flashed a green signal for the first time since March 2023. The signals come as BTC trades above $81,000 following a 37% increase from April’s lows, although analysts are still unsure on whether the smaller digital assets will follow the same trend.
Bitcoin short-term holder pressure evaporates
According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr, Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) loss pressure dropped to zero on May 8 and has stayed there for five consecutive days. The metric tracks unrealized losses among token holders who’ve held their assets for less than 155 days, and peaked at 27.9% on February 24th, sitting in the 18-22% range through late March and early April while BTC traded between $66,000 and $77,000.
Bitcoin moving above $80,000 wiped out those losses entirely, which is great news for these new investors. At the same time, the total amount of Bitcoin held by that group has dropped to its lowest level in three months, falling from over 28% down to 22.2%, according to Adler’s data.
This combination of fewer short-term traders and zero current losses is a positive sign, as it means there are fewer people feeling pressured to sell in a panic.
Profits are materializing, and the market is absorbing them
CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Aleman noted that Bitcoin investors were consistently selling their coins for more than they originally paid for nine consecutive days since May 1. This trend is measured by tool called the “adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio” (aSOPR), which stayed above 1.0 throughout that period.
Essentially, staying above 1.0 signifies that the market is healthy enough to let people sell for profit without causing the price to crash, showing that there is plenty of buying demand to soak up the sales.
Aleman also compared the current sequence to a similar run from October 19 to November 4, 2025, when BTC also experienced several consecutive days of profitable on-chain spending. He also emphasized that while one day of profitable selling may not mean much, nine days in a row suggest the market has enough buying interest to absorb profit-taking without the price falling.
However, another CryptoQuant research note published on May 13 suggested a more cautious outlook. It noted that Bitcoin’s current 200-day moving average is around $82,400, the same level that capped the market in March 2022 before the price fell even further.
The Coinbase Bitcoin Price Premium also turned negative in late April and stayed there, suggesting that US institutional demand has not yet confirmed the rally, thus raising the risk that this trend could be a temporary event.
A CryptoQuant analyst going by CW8900 noticed that Bitcoin’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator produced an early bull signal for the first time since early 2023.
Altcoin volume recovering, but momentum remains fragile
The picture for altcoins is a bit more uncertain, despite some promising signs. Another analyst reported that the trading interest in altcoins is starting to overtake the long-term averages, with the biggest example being the 30-day moving average for altcoin trading volume crossing above its 365-day average.
At the same time, Bitcoin has been dominating trading activity since mid-April, a condition that historically suggested that altcoins may begin to outperform Bitcoin again.
However, research firm 10x Research pushed back on the optimism. In their May 14 post on X, the firm said altcoin momentum was stalling at the 30-day moving average rather than rising above it, and that trading volumes are declining again.
10x Research identified BNB as one of the stronger assets, due to Grayscale’s ETF filing and Coinbase’s roadmap inclusion, but warned that if the general momentum of altcoins drops below the 30-day moving average, then that would be a signal to exit long positions.
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