This is a technical analysis post by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
Bitcoin trades close to a crucial long-term price line that’s held for three weeks, putting bulls on edge. However, shares in the largest publicly listed BTC holder, Strategy (MSTR), have already slipped below this “safety net,” flashing bearish cues to the cryptocurrency.
This safety net is the 100-week simple moving average (SMA), the average price over roughly two years and a trusted metric for technical analysts across markets to identify major trend shifts and long-term support or breakdowns.
For bitcoin, the 100-week SMA has held steady for three weeks, halting the decline from record highs above $126,000. Think of it as a safety net catching a falling object mid-air. A bounce from the average could spark hopes of a trampoline-like bullish rebound.
But if prices break lower, frustrated holders may dump more while bears gain confidence, sparking deeper declines.
That’s precisely what happened to MicroStrategy shares in November, as seen in the chart below.
MSTR dropped to $220 in early November, penetrating the 100-week SMA line. Since then, it has extended the sell-off to $160. The stock is now down over 60% from the year-to-date high of $457.
This is critical for BTC bulls, as MSTR had also led bitcoin earlier when it broke below the 50-week SMA, another widely watched long-term average.
The key takeaway is that bulls must defend the 100-week SMA, or prices risk following MSTR’s path into deeper losses. If bulls manage to keep prices above the average, it would strengthen hopes that it acts as a trampoline for a bullish rebound.