Ripple (XRP) price failed to sustain its recovery after briefly rising toward $2.64 in mid-May. Sellers took control near that level, pushing the token back toward the $2.15 support. Despite a broader attempt by altcoins to stabilize, XRP price has failed to restart a bull run. Trading volumes have dropped, and derivatives interest continues to thin out, signaling waning investor conviction.
The downtrend comes despite the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission formally reviewing WisdomTree’s proposed spot XRP ETF. The application, submitted in late May, would list the WisdomTree XRP Trust on the Cboe BZX Exchange. While the move has fueled debate around XRP’s regulatory clarity, the review process remains in its early phase. Market participants remain cautious, as past ETF reviews for other altcoins have seen little success.
Meanwhile, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse addressed the crowd at the XRP Las Vegas 2025 conference, doubling down on the firm’s ambition to overhaul global finance. He claimed Ripple was “rewriting the entire banking system,” underscoring efforts to partner with institutions and expand RippleNet services. Yet despite the bullish narrative from executives, market indicators paint a more skeptical picture.
Analysts warn that XRP may be poised for a deeper correction as bearish technical and on-chain signals emerge.
XRP’s Realized Price Suggests Potential Reversion Toward $1
Historical behavior in XRP’s price action shows a recurring mean reversion pattern toward its realized price. The XRP Realized price chart highlighted that every major rally—2017, 2021, and early 2025—has eventually given way to corrections that return the spot price close to the realized baseline. That metric, now sitting just above the $1 mark, has consistently acted as the gravitational center during prolonged market drawdowns.
Currently, XRP trades more than 100% above its realized price. While that premium may signal strong demand, past instances show that similar deviations have not held over time. In 2018 and again in late 2021, price exceeded realized value by wide margins before correcting sharply in subsequent months. Each cycle followed the same structure: euphoric breakout, sideways exhaustion, and eventual reversion.
With current price action stalling below $2.20 and bearish divergence forming on the weekly RSI, the probability of a move back toward the $1–$1.10 zone for the Ripple token has increased. Unless volume and momentum shift decisively in favor of buyers, a reversion to realized price remains the structurally aligned path.
XRP’s Technical Setup Flashes Bearish Divergence, Breakdown Risks Mount
XRP’s short-term rebound has failed to negate a broader corrective bias, with multiple indicators signaling the potential for deeper downside. A post from a TradingView analyst outlined a breakdown from a rising parallel channel that had supported XRP since mid-April. Price action turned decisively bearish after May 12, with a string of lower highs and three consecutive red candles reinforcing selling momentum.
Volume remains low, suggesting the current move lacks strength, but the absence of buy-side pressure at critical Fib levels—particularly the 0.236 zone near $2.03—raises the risk of a further decline.
The bearish risks from the analysis could send traders into panic selling mode. The regulatory uncertainty and clouded ETF future do not aid XRP’s price cause.
On the weekly timeframe, a more ominous signal emerges. Despite the uptrend line remaining intact, the Relative Strength Index shows a pronounced bearish divergence—lower highs on the RSI while price posts higher lows. This decoupling between price and momentum often precedes structural breakdowns.
The RSI has dropped steadily from overbought territory toward the midline, reflecting waning bullish strength over time. Together, these charts suggest XRP remains at risk of an extended correction. While long-term structure remains technically intact, short-term signals point to building pressure that could trigger a sharper downside move if critical supports fail.
Breakdown Risks Rise As Death Cross Aligns With Bearish Pattern Formation
The XRP price is moving inside a descending triangle pattern. The pattern consists of a series of lower highs converging against a flat support base. This structure typically signals distribution, with sellers overpowering buyers at successively lower levels. The pattern has now matured, and a breakdown below the horizontal support line activates a bearish continuation setup.
The triangle’s projected target is measured by calculating the pattern’s height at its widest point and extending that vertically downward from the breakdown level. With the structure intact and volume beginning to contract, conditions favor a volatile move in the sessions ahead. If the Ripple token confirms the pattern, XRP price could drop nearly 25% from its current price levels, theoretically.
Adding to bearish pressure, XRP has triggered a death cross, with the 20-day exponential moving average crossing below the 50-day EMA. These short- and mid-term averages and the 100-day EMA now form a resistance confluence near the $2.27 mark. Breaking above this cluster could allow XRP to test the resistance near $2.40. Until that occurs, the confluence acts as a ceiling on price recovery.
On the downside, XRP faces immediate support near $2.06. A confirmed breakdown below that threshold would expose the token to the next key support near $1.94. The RSI remains below 50 and slows downward, suggesting momentum favors sellers. Unless bulls reclaim the resistance confluence with volume expansion, XRP risks validating the descending triangle’s bearish implication