Oil Tops $100 as U.S.-Iran Conflict Pushes Energy Markets Higher

TLDR

• Brent crude passed $100 a barrel for the first time since July
• The U.S. military destroyed five Iranian oil tankers after attacks on a U.S. warship
• Iran launched missiles at U.S. targets in Jordan and warned Gulf states against supporting U.S. forces
• Goldman Sachs says Brent could exceed $120 a barrel if shipping attacks intensify
• Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are running at roughly 50% of pre-war levels

Oil prices jumped on Wednesday as fighting between the U.S. and Iran pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel for the first time since July.

Brent crude futures rose 2.6% to $100.45 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 2.3% to reach $95.19 a barrel.

The price spike follows a sharp rise in military activity between the two sides. The U.S. military destroyed five Iranian crude tankers on Tuesday, saying it was retaliation for attempted attacks on an American warship. No U.S. personnel were harmed.

Iran responded by firing missiles at a U.S. base near Al Azraq in eastern Jordan. Tehran also warned Gulf states including Kuwait and Bahrain not to support U.S. forces.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it attacked 10 ships in total, including two U.S. vessels and eight oil tankers. The conflict is now in its seventh month.

BREAKING: Iran’s IRGC announces it carried out the single largest attack in the Strait of Hormuz of the war, striking 10 vessels in retaliation for tonight’s US strikes on 5 Iranian oil tankers.

The IRGC says it struck 8 oil tankers attempting to pass through the Strait and the…

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) September 9, 2026

Houthi Attacks Add to Regional Pressure

The fighting spread further when Iran-backed Houthi forces struck energy and economic sites in several southern cities in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. More than 70 people were injured in those attacks.

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U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Iran that Washington would keep targeting Iranian oil tankers in response to attacks on U.S. warships.

Analysts at ING said the market is likely to keep pricing in a risk premium as talks remain far off. “Recent developments only reinforce the view that we’re still some way from a restart in talks,” they wrote.

Despite the rising tension, estimates of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have edged higher. Flows are now around 10 million barrels per day, which is about 50% of pre-war levels.

Goldman Sachs Warns of $120 Oil

Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven said the chances of Brent crude exceeding $120 a barrel are growing as shipping attacks intensify.

“It’s definitely plausible,” Struyven told CNBC when asked if $120 was possible.

Goldman’s base case still expects Persian Gulf exports to recover gradually, as producers find alternative routes and build pipeline capacity.

But Struyven said the recent escalation raises the odds of a scenario where exports stall for months and prices push higher.

“The probability of that scenario is definitely going up as we’re seeing an intensification and broadening of the shipping attacks,” he said.

U.S.-Iran military action had paused for about a month while Washington applied economic pressure on Tehran. Strikes resumed toward the end of last month, and the conflict has since widened.

Brent crude last traded above $100 in July. With no peace talks in sight, the market is watching whether shipping disruptions deepen further.