TLDR
- Amazon reports Q2 2026 earnings on July 30, after market close
- Evercore ISI reiterates Outperform with a $315 price target; stock currently trades around $231
- Q2 revenue consensus sits at $196 billion, representing 17% year-over-year growth
- AWS growth, margins, and $200 billion capex outlook are the key things to watch
- Morningstar rates AMZN four stars with a fair value estimate of $280, calling it moderately undervalued
Amazon reports its second-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, July 30, after the close of trading. The stock is currently trading around $231, and Wall Street is watching closely.
Amazon.com, Inc., AMZN
Evercore ISI reiterated its Outperform rating on Monday, keeping its price target at $315. The firm sees the Street’s Q2 revenue estimate of $196 billion as achievable, with more upside risk than downside.
That $196 billion figure represents 17% year-over-year growth and 9% quarter-over-quarter growth. Amazon’s revenue grew 14% over the last twelve months to reach $743 billion.
Evercore ISI also flagged Prime Day as a meaningful near-term factor. The event, which fell on July 12 this year, is expected to add $5 billion to $10 billion in incremental revenue to the second quarter.
Because Prime Day landed in Q2 this year rather than Q3, Evercore ISI trimmed its third-quarter revenue estimate by 7% to $194 billion. That sits below the Street’s Q3 estimate of $204 billion.
The firm also cut its Q3 operating income estimate by 7% to $24.2 billion, slightly below the Street’s $25.1 billion estimate. The overall impact on full-year 2026 estimates was a modest 1% reduction.
AWS and Margins in Focus
AWS remains the central story heading into earnings. Analysts will be watching for revenue growth, capacity additions, backlog updates, and margin performance.
AWS profitability is the main driver of Amazon’s overall margins. There are concerns that heavy depreciation from ongoing capacity expansion could put some pressure on AWS margins in the near term.
Amazon has also been ramping spending on Project Leo, its satellite connectivity initiative. That spending has been weighing on margins and was flagged as a headwind during first-quarter guidance.
On capex, the market will check whether Amazon is on pace to hit its $200 billion capital expenditure target for 2026. Amazon only guides one quarter at a time, so any commentary on Q3 will be closely parsed.
Morningstar’s Take
Morningstar carries a four-star rating on AMZN with a fair value estimate of $280. The firm views the stock as moderately undervalued at current levels.
Morningstar projects AWS revenue to grow at a 20% compound annual rate over the next five years. Advertising revenue is expected to grow at 18% annually over the same period.
The firm models total company revenue growing at an 11% CAGR through 2030. GAAP operating margin is expected to expand from 11% in 2025 to roughly 14% by 2030.
Amazon ended 2025 with $123 billion in cash and marketable securities against $65.6 billion in debt. Morningstar assigns it a Wide economic moat rating.
BofA Securities also reiterated a Buy rating ahead of earnings, raising its Q2 revenue estimate to $198.8 billion, above the Street consensus. The firm set its Q2 EBIT estimate at $24.1 billion.
Options data currently implies a potential stock move of 6.4% following the earnings release.
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