Ondo [ONDO] rallied strongly in early May to challenge the swing high at $0.47 but has since retraced back to $0.34. It was down 5.5% in the past 24 hours and just over 16.9% in the previous week of trading.
The Ondo token losses came alongside a rapid Bitcoin [BTC] sell-off. The extreme selling and fearful market conditions could see both ONDO and BTC fall lower.
The bearish ONDO case
Throughout 2026, the higher timeframe swing structure of ONDO has been bearish. The Bitcoin rally beyond $80k in May helped the altcoin sentiment.
Around the same time, it was reported that Ondo Finance, in partnership with Ripple’s [XRP] ledger, J.P. Morgan, and Mastercard, helped pilot the first near real-time, cross-border settlement.
The news and the growing RWA narrative around that time helped boost ONDO prices to a local high of $0.451, but the altcoin didn’t manage a daily session close above the $0.47 swing high from January.
The subsequent rejection and the losses over the past month highlighted how the bearish trend was intact. It also signaled that further losses can be expected, especially as the lower timeframe demand zone from $0.335 to $0.350 has been broken.
Traders’ call to action – Sell
The short-term range over the past month between $0.34 and $0.45 was breached to the downside. The H4 structure had turned bearish, and the bounce to $0.372 has reversed.
The MFI on this timeframe was in the process of falling below 50 to signal increased capital outflows and downward momentum.
The liquidation map of the past three months showed that the $0.31-$0.34 area had relatively high cumulative long leverage. A bounce to $0.376-$0.385 was possible, but a dive toward $0.31 was likely to occur soon afterward.
Therefore, traders can position themselves bearishly but leave space for a short-term liquidation hunt to the upside.
A sustained move beyond $0.432 would break the 4-hour structure bullishly, invalidating the bearish short-term bias.
Final Summary
- The Ondo rally in May challenged local highs, but demand was not enough to flip the long-term downtrend.
- A bounce from the short-term range low at $0.34 is possible, but the momentum favored the sellers.