Iran’s Bitcoin Toll Demand Puts $1 Million Price Target Back in Focus

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Iran’s Bitcoin Toll Demand Puts  Million Price Target Back in Focus


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TLDR

  • Iran announced a $1-per-barrel Bitcoin toll for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz
  • Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says this could push Bitcoin to $1 million per coin
  • Bitcoin has rallied 12% since US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran began February 28
  • Analysts say Iran’s move legitimises Bitcoin as a tool for international commerce
  • Bitcoin’s total addressable market could now exceed gold’s $33.7 trillion market cap

Iran has announced it will charge ships a $1-per-barrel toll to pass through the Strait of Hormuz — and it wants that toll paid in Bitcoin.

The announcement, first reported by the Financial Times, marks the first time a sovereign nation has officially accepted Bitcoin as a form of international payment.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes. Before the current conflict, around 20% of global liquid petroleum passed through it.

The US recently imposed a blockade on the strait in an effort to pressure the Iranian economy. Iran’s Bitcoin toll is seen as a direct response to that financial squeeze.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $74,500, with a market cap of roughly $1.4 trillion, according to CoinGecko. Gold trades at $4,854 per ounce with a market cap above $33.7 trillion.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price
Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Bitcoin has gained 12% since US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran began on February 28. The S&P 500 fell 1% and gold dropped 10% over the same period.

Bitcoin as Both Currency and Store of Value

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan says Iran’s move changes how Bitcoin’s total addressable market should be calculated.


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Until now, Bitcoin was mostly compared to gold as a store of value. Hougan had previously estimated that if Bitcoin captured 17% of the $38 trillion store-of-value market, it could reach $1 million per coin.

But Iran’s toll suggests Bitcoin could also function as an international currency. That would put its potential market far above gold alone.

“If Bitcoin starts to take on a dual role as both a store of value, like gold, and an actual currency, like the dollar, we may need to revise our targets higher,” Hougan said.

The London Crypto Club described the moment as a major shift in the “Overton Window” — the range of ideas considered politically acceptable. Analysts drew parallels with Russia’s removal from the SWIFT banking system in 2022, which accelerated central bank gold purchases globally.

Broader Bitcoin Adoption Already Under Way

Bitcoin adoption has been growing outside of geopolitics too. Citizens in Argentina, Turkey, and Venezuela have turned to Bitcoin to protect savings from inflation and currency collapse.

A January Coinbase survey found 87% of Argentinians said crypto could enhance their financial independence.

On the corporate side, private and public companies tracked by BitBo collectively hold more than 1.5 million Bitcoin, valued at over $116 billion.

Around 11,000 merchants worldwide now accept Bitcoin as payment, according to academic publisher Springer Nature, using BTC Map data.

Iran’s toll announcement remains in place as of this week, with no indication it has been reversed or renegotiated.





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