Crypto trader BigBullMike (@Michael_EWpro) on X proposes that Hedera’s HBAR has completed a complex Wave 2 correction and is now ready for a breakout. In Elliott Wave theory, Wave 2 represents a corrective pullback before a larger upward leg. His count shows HBAR holding support near $0.226 and targeting $0.265 if resistance levels are cleared.
HBAR Technical Barriers Cluster at $0.25, With $0.30 Still Unbroken in 2025
HBAR to USD currently stands at $0.2277 on Aug. 29, down almost 5% in 24 hours. Trading volume rose 32% to $359 million, showing heavier activity as the token retested its support zone.
TradingView data shows the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43, a neutral reading that signals neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The price remains capped below the 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near $0.236–$0.243, which align with the Volume Profile (VPVR) resistance band at $0.25. VPVR tracks where the largest volumes have historically traded, marking $0.25 as a pivotal barrier.
A daily close above $0.25 would be the first technical confirmation of Wave 2 completion. However, traders also note that HBAR has failed twice at the $0.30 level in 2025. This makes $0.30 the broader resistance that must break for a sustained trend reversal, even if the nearer-term breakout to $0.265 materializes.
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Futures Data Show Neutral Positioning, But Liquidation Risks Near Key Levels
Derivatives markets show no leverage imbalance. Open interest is near 378M HBAR, while the funding rate is flat at ~0.01%, meaning longs and shorts are evenly positioned.
Coinglass data shows liquidation clusters between $0.22 and $0.25. A clean break above this level could trigger short covering and reinforce momentum. Rising trading volume near support adds weight to the bullish setup. But confirmation requires buying pressure above resistance, not stalling at it.
Additionally, HashScan explorer data shows 9,000–12,000 daily active accounts in August, indicating steady participation. However, network fees have declined since early August, showing that fewer transactions are being processed compared with earlier in the summer. Lower fee activity suggests adoption momentum is cooling, which weakens the case for fundamentals as the immediate driver of price action.
HBAR’s immediate outlook depends on whether it can break through the $0.25 barrier with sustained volume. A close above this level would validate BigBullMike’s view that Wave 2 has ended and could lift the token toward $0.265–$0.27, with $0.30 as the larger target beyond. Failure to overcome resistance or a breakdown below $0.226 would shift momentum downward, exposing HBAR to liquidation-driven losses toward $0.20.