Cardano (ADA) may attempt a move toward the $1.75–$2 range if it stays above $0.76, according to analyst Mr. Brownstone. The forecast follows a pullback from $0.91 and is based on short-term price structure, trading volume, and support at key moving averages. Separately, analyst Crypto Jebb has repeated his long-term target of $10 for ADA by the end of the decade. He expects gradual adoption to support that move over time.
Both predictions come as ADA trades near support, while several on-chain and market signals show limited activity compared to earlier in the year.
ADA Pulls Back to Key Technical Support
ADA to USD is trading near $0.80 after falling from $0.91. The decline followed a breakdown from a rising wedge, which is a pattern that often leads to short-term corrections. The price is holding above a support zone near $0.76, where the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) is located. The 50-day and 100-day EMAs are below this level at $0.7078 and $0.7010.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which tracks how quickly and strongly price has moved, has dropped from 73 to 59. The indicator no longer shows overbought conditions. This suggests that buyers may re-enter if the price remains stable near this level. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), which helps track momentum shifts, shows the MACD line slightly above the signal line. This setup may support a bounce if price gains strength in the next few sessions.
Analyst expects a move toward $0.90 as the first step. If that level breaks, the price could test $1.10 and possibly reach the $1.75–$2 range.
The volume profile shows that trading activity between $0.90 and $1.50 has been limited. If ADA moves back above $0.90, there may be less resistance in that zone. This could allow the price to rise more quickly if trading volume increases.
However, if the price falls below $0.76, the next likely support lies near $0.70. That range includes the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which may slow further declines.
Transaction Volume Has Dropped Sharply
On-chain activity does not currently support a strong price rally. Cardano’s daily transaction volume has dropped from over 2 billion ADA in March to 128 million this week. This is a decline of more than 90% in four months.
Active address data shows a similar trend. Daily active addresses have fallen from more than 53,000 in November 2024 to 21,300 now. The 30-day active address count is below 500,000. These numbers suggest that fewer users are interacting with the network.
Development activity is also lower. Cardano’s GitHub activity score is now 51.98. In August 2024, the score was above 85. This means that developer contributions have slowed compared to last year.
DeFi Metrics Are Below Peak Levels
Cardano’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem has also cooled. Total value locked (TVL) is $356 million. This is less than half of the $700 million recorded earlier this year.
In the last 24 hours, protocol revenue was $281,000 and DEX volume was under $5 million. These figures suggest that trading and borrowing activity across Cardano-based apps has declined since the March peak.
Open interest in ADA futures has increased in July. This means more traders are placing leveraged bets on ADA’s price movement. At the same time, the funding rate is now positive. This indicates that most traders are holding long positions and paying fees to those holding shorts.
When funding turns positive too early, it often leads to price volatility. If the price does not move higher soon, some long positions may close or get liquidated.
ADA’s price has closely followed Bitcoin in recent weeks. Data from Tradingview shows a 30-day correlation of 0.93 between the two assets. This means ADA’s direction often depends on how Bitcoin is performing.
Bitcoin is currently trading above $110,000. If Bitcoin remains stable or rises, ADA may stay supported. If Bitcoin falls, ADA could also face pressure, even if its technical setup remains intact.
Crypto analyst Crypto Jebb expects ADA to reach $10 by the end of this decade. He believes that long-term blockchain adoption, network upgrades, and expanding utility may support higher valuations over time.
From current levels near $0.80, a move to $10 would represent a 1,150% gain. During the 2021 cycle, ADA rose over 6,000% from March 2020 to its all-time high of $3.10 in August 2021.
At present, Cardano’s transaction volume, user activity, and ecosystem engagement are much lower than during that rally. Unless these metrics begin to grow again, ADA may not have the same conditions to support a long-term move toward $10.
In the short term, ADA could move toward $1.10 or higher if it holds above $0.76 and reclaims the $0.90 level. The $2 target outlined by Mr. Brownstone matches the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of ADA’s earlier rise from $0.50 to $0.90.
However, current fundamentals show lower usage across the network. Specifically, transaction volume is down sharply. Developer activity has slowed and DeFi app engagement is modest.