After a strong move in August, the crypto market entered Q4 with cautious optimism. Ethereum, Bitcoin, and other altcoins had their strongest monthly gains since late 2025. This helped prices regain ground after much of the third quarter remained feeble. However, the newest move does not indicate that the crypto bear market has ended. According to Fidelity Viewpoints, some stakeholders anticipate November 2026 as a likely market bottom, based on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle. The other part believes that the bottom was already found in July. Volatility, adoption, governance, and financial policy could be major factors in determining the niche’s direction through the year-end.
Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Keeps November 2026 in Focus
Bitcoin has historically formed major bear-market bottoms and bull-market gains roughly four years apart. Since the former bear market bottom occurred in November 2022, some stakeholders believe the next bottom could arise around November 2026. This will occur if the historical pattern recurs. Ethereum and the broader altcoin market have followed Bitcoin’s direction.
However, Fidelity advises that the four-year cycle is not guaranteed to recur and should not be treated as an accurate market-timing tool. Bitcoin could have hit the bottom in July, or could plunge again and create another low in November or later. Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research, said digital asset adoption has occurred in waves, which can in turn lead to market cycles. He emphasized the need to maintain a long-term outlook rather than timing market movements.
Volatility is another factor to watch out for during the fourth quarter. Bitcoin’s prior bear markets have often ended with a low-volatility phase, followed by a surge in volatility as prices move higher. From June to mid-August, virtual assets experienced comparatively low volatility. According to Fidelity Digital Assets, Bitcoin and other assets were trading toward the lower or value end of their historical ranges.
This nuance changed at the end. Bitcoin entered a phase of unpredictability and jumped more than 25% during the third week of the month. Solana and Ethereum also climbed by 28% and 34.1%, respectively, during the same period. The move does not indicate that the bear market has ended, but Fidelity considers the price shift a factor that could support a more positive outlook.
Governance, Adoption and Institutional Activity Could Drive the Next Move
Crypto adoption also grew even when prices remained under pressure. In July, Bitwise Investments reported that stablecoin transaction volume had reached 2.3 times Visa’s volume. MetaMask also reported that the real-world asset market had grown faster in the existing year than any other year. This created a phase in which crypto adoption and prices appeared to move in separate directions. While activity across some niches continued to increase, the total crypto market capitalization remained in a bear phase.
Fidelity now sees the late August price recovery as a probable indication that adoption and price could begin to converge. Kuiper described adoption metrics as the fundamentals of digital asset networks and said their persistence during the recent downturn showed that the underlying value proposition had not disappeared. Governance will also remain a crucial factor through the fourth quarter. The crypto industry continues to monitor the CLARITY Act, which aims to establish a broader regulatory framework for virtual assets in the United States and define the responsibilities of federal regulators.
The bill has passed the House but remains under consideration in the Senate, leaving its timing and eventual outcome ambiguous. The SEC recently proposed “Regulation Crypto Assets”, a framework addressing when earlier-stage crypto asset offerings may qualify for exemptions from security registration requirements. The proposal is still subject to public comment and has not been decided. For stakeholders heading into Q4, the combination of Bitcoin’s historical cycle, changing stability, continued adoption, and regulatory developments could provide crucial signals. Still, Fidelity highlights that none of these factors guarantees the end of the current bear market.