Russia’s cryptocurrency-market law took effect on September 1, creating a regulated framework for intermediaries including crypto exchanges and digital repositories. As the market opens under the new rules, Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov has projected that regulated exchange trading could reach 3.5 trillion to 4 trillion rubles in the first year, or about $46.43 billion.
The forecast, reported by TASS, is significant not because it assumes Russia’s entire existing crypto market will immediately move on to licensed venues, but because it does not. Sberbank’s estimate is built around an initial migration of about one-fifth of the country’s estimated crypto-transaction activity.
Sberbank’s $46.43 billion forecast
Popov’s 3.5 trillion-to-4 trillion-ruble estimate broadly tracks Sberbank’s underlying view of the market. The bank put Russian crypto-transaction volume at roughly 50 billion rubles a day, equivalent to around 18 trillion rubles annually, according to the TASS report.
On that basis, a 20% shift into regulated exchanges would amount to about 3.6 trillion rubles, placing it within the projected first-year range. The calculation therefore leaves the larger share of estimated activity outside the newly regulated exchange segment at the outset.
That distinction matters when reading the $46.43 billion figure: it is a forecast for trading through the regulated exchange system during its first year, not an estimate of all cryptocurrency transactions involving Russian users or of the country’s entire crypto market.
The forecast also provides an early measure against which the rollout can be judged. Whether trading approaches the upper end of Sberbank’s range will depend in part on how much activity transitions to the authorised venues covered by the new framework.
Retail access and trading limits
The Bank of Russia’s framework gives qualified investors access to trading without a monetary limit, while non-qualified investors may buy only the most liquid cryptocurrencies after testing and are subject to an annual limit of 300,000 rubles per intermediary, according to the central bank’s announcement.
Public exchange trading will initially cover Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tether’s USDT under the proposed investor-protection rules, the Bank of Russia said in an August statement. The combination of a limited asset universe and retail access conditions sets the early market boundaries.
Licensed intermediaries and phased rollout
The new law introduces regulated intermediaries in the form of crypto exchanges and digital repositories. The Bank of Russia’s September 1 framework establishes the institutional basis for a domestic regulated market rather than simply setting purchase limits for individual users.
Not every element will be activated on the same timetable. An independent report by The Block said that although the framework is scheduled to begin on September 1, 2026, some provisions governing issuance and circulation will not take effect until September 1, 2027.
That phased approach means the first year covered by Sberbank’s estimate will unfold before those later issuance and circulation provisions become effective. The regulated-exchange forecast should consequently be viewed in the context of a market whose legal architecture is beginning in stages.
For now, the central reference point is Sberbank’s assumption that only around 20% of the estimated 18 trillion rubles in annual crypto transactions will initially migrate to regulated exchanges. If that migration rate holds, it supports the bank’s projected 3.5 trillion-to-4 trillion-ruble first-year trading range.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.