The Week Ahead: Jobs Report, Fed Rate Hike Fears, and Big Earnings on Deck

TLDR

• The August jobs report drops Friday and could influence whether the Fed hikes rates in September
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech pushed market odds of a September rate hike to 60%
• Dell, Broadcom, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise report quarterly results this week
• Tim Cook officially hands the Apple CEO role to John Ternus this week
• Lululemon, Five Below, and Victoria’s Secret are among consumer companies reporting earnings

The week ahead is packed with market-moving events, from a key jobs report to major earnings and a leadership change at Apple.

Stocks enter the week roughly 1% off record highs. Markets got a lift last week from Nvidia’s strong quarterly results and an increase in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, now at around two-thirds of pre-war levels according to Goldman Sachs.

The Federal Reserve is at the center of investor attention. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole on Friday and, while he avoided giving direct forward guidance, his comments were read as hawkish by markets.

The CME FedWatch tool showed the probability of a September rate hike jumping to 60% after Warsh’s speech, up from 35% the day before. Warsh acknowledged inflation remains too high and that current monetary policy is not particularly restrictive.

Odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026 jumped to 64% after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed has “work to do” if inflation doesn’t move toward 2% fast enough. pic.twitter.com/YwcywqcAxH

— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) August 28, 2026

BlackRock’s Rick Rieder noted the speech “erred on the hawkish side” but said a September hike is not guaranteed, with more inflation and employment data still to come before the Fed meets.

Jobs Report Takes Center Stage

The August Employment Situation Report lands Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. In July, the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, which caught economists off guard. The unemployment rate came in at 4.1%, better than expected, but labor force participation is near a five-year low.

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ING economist James Knightley expects a modest recovery of around 65,000 jobs in August. He pointed to tariff-related caution and higher borrowing costs as factors keeping hiring subdued for the rest of the year.

The labor participation rate has fallen partly because immigration has slowed and some workers may have given up looking for jobs or chosen to retire early.

Earnings From Tech to Consumer

On the tech side, Dell reports Tuesday. Last quarter, Dell’s AI-optimized server sales surged 750% year over year, and the company raised its outlook. Broadcom and Hewlett Packard Enterprise both report Wednesday, with strong AI data center demand expected to be a theme.

#earnings for the week of August 31, 2026https://t.co/hLn2sKQhEY$AVGO $CRDO $CIEN $DELL $PANW $NIO $HPE $SNOW $PATH $AMBA $WLY $SAIC $MDB $NTAP $FCEL $SSL $DOCU $FIVE $RZLV $ZS $LULU $IOT $ASAN $MMED $MDT $CANG $CHPT $BBCP $SWBI $BLRX $AGX $PL $GTLB $PHR $YEXT $CRM $PVH $BF.B… pic.twitter.com/gdYAAyadpX

— Earnings Whispers (@eWhispers) August 28, 2026

Palo Alto Networks also reports Tuesday after the bell. The cybersecurity company beat expectations last quarter and gave an upbeat forecast.

On the consumer side, Five Below reports Wednesday. The discount retailer topped expectations this spring as shoppers across income levels turned to lower-priced stores. Lululemon reports Thursday, though shares took a hit in June when the company lowered its forecast. New CEO Heidi O’Neill, a former Nike executive, takes over on September 8.

Apple Passes the Torch

Tim Cook officially hands the CEO role to John Ternus this week. Cook grew Apple’s market cap from $350 billion to between $4 trillion and $5 trillion during his tenure. Ternus, previously Apple’s senior vice president of hardware engineering, now takes the helm.

The Federal Reserve also releases its Beige Book on Wednesday, and Tesla holds an event in Austin, Texas on Thursday where it is expected to share more details about its Cybercab autonomous taxi.