US Lawmakers Push to Ban Politicians From Betting on Prediction Markets Like Polymarket and Kalshi

TLDR

• The PREDICT Act would ban Congress members, the president, and senior officials from betting on prediction markets
• Violations carry a 10% fine plus full repayment of winnings to the US Treasury
• The bill follows suspicious bets on the Iran strike that netted traders over $1 million
• Kalshi supports the bill; Polymarket has not commented
• Both platforms updated their own rules on Monday ahead of the legislation

US lawmakers have introduced a bipartisan bill to stop politicians and senior government officials from placing bets on prediction markets. The bill, called the PREDICT Act, was introduced by Representative Nikki Budzinski, a Democrat from Illinois, and Representative Adrian Smith, a Republican from Nebraska.

🚨NEW: @Kalshi strengthens prediction market integrity:

New tech preemptively blocks politicians, athletes, and sports personnel from trading on markets they’re involved in.

Whistleblower tools and league cooperation added to prevent insider trading and manipulation. pic.twitter.com/R0bRntQhyQ

— The Crypto Times (@CryptoTimes_io) March 24, 2026

The bill targets platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, where users can bet on the outcomes of political events, policy decisions, and government actions.

Under the PREDICT Act, members of Congress, the president, the vice president, and political appointees would all be banned from trading on these markets. The ban also extends to their spouses and dependent children.

Anyone caught breaking the rules would face a fine equal to 10% of the total value of their trade. They would also have to pay back every dollar of profit to the US Treasury.

The bill was sparked by concerns over suspicious betting activity. A small number of traders made over $1 million on Polymarket by betting on when the US would strike Iran, with very precise timing.

Earlier this year, an anonymous trader made over $400,000 betting that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would leave office, just hours before a US military operation to remove him.

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Budzinski said these cases raised questions about whether people with access to sensitive government information were using it to make money on prediction markets.

A Wave of Legislative Action

The PREDICT Act is one of several bills targeting prediction markets introduced in recent weeks. Senator Chris Murphy and others introduced a bill banning all bets on terrorism, war, and assassinations. Senators Jeff Merkley and Amy Klobuchar proposed the End Prediction Market Corruption Act earlier in March.

On Monday, Senators John Curtis and Adam Schiff introduced a separate bipartisan bill to ban sports and casino-style betting contracts on CFTC-registered prediction market platforms.

At the state level, 11 states have taken legal action against prediction markets, with two more states pursuing pending cases.

How the Platforms Are Responding

Kalshi said it already bans insider trading by government officials and called the bill a “welcome measure.” The company said it supports making the standard consistent across the industry.

Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment on the legislation.

Both platforms updated their own internal rules on Monday. Kalshi announced new screening policies blocking politicians from trading on their own campaigns and athletes from betting on their own sports. Polymarket banned trades based on stolen or confidential information and trades from people who can influence an event’s outcome.

Budzinski said her office has been meeting with the prediction market industry as the bill moves forward.

The PREDICT Act would refer suspected violations to the House Ethics Committee for enforcement. The bipartisan support for the bill, Budzinski said, gives it a better chance of passing through the Republican-controlled House and Senate.

The bill does not ban political staff from using prediction markets entirely. A chief of staff could still bet on sports events like March Madness, but could not bet on government policy decisions like when a federal agency might reopen.