Cardano (ADA) has not yet recovered from last week’s crypto market crash — and now it’s been hit with another wave of selling. On Oct. 17, ADA fell over 4% as renewed anxiety over U.S. regional bank stability and broader risk aversion in global markets pushed investors away from volatile assets like crypto. The move followed Bitcoin losing 4% and breaking below $104,000, triggering more than $1.2 billion in liquidations across major exchanges and deepening losses for altcoins.
So, can Cardano recover from these setbacks and still reach $1 by the year end? Let’s analyze.
Altcoin Liquidity Dries Up as Capital Exits the Market
The altcoin market capitalization has slipped to around $242 billion, the lowest level since May 2025. The chart shows clear outflows since early October, reflecting reduced capital rotation into non-Bitcoin assets.
Historically, ADA’s sustained rallies occurred alongside rising altcoin liquidity. The current contraction suggests that the broader environment is not yet supportive of a strong upside recovery.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s chart shows a decisive break below its rising trend channel, closing at $106,350. The asset remains below its key moving averages, confirming weakened momentum. With RSI at 34.8, Bitcoin has entered oversold territory, but there is no sign of reversal.
Cardano’s correlation with Bitcoin — visible during prior selloffs — implies ADA will struggle to rebound meaningfully until Bitcoin stabilizes above the $110,000 range.
ADA Near Support, But Trend Still Bearish
The ADA to USD daily chart shows price hovering around $0.625, below every major exponential moving average — confirms a bearish market structure.
The RSI at 33.34 indicates that ADA is entering oversold territory. In earlier phases this year, similar RSI levels (around 32–34) preceded short-term bounces of 15–25%, but those recoveries occurred on stronger volume. Current daily volume remains moderate near $1.8 billion, far below the levels seen during January’s rally above $1.
Immediate support is visible at $0.60, with secondary support near $0.55. Resistance stands at $0.74 (aligned with the 20-day EMA) and $0.90, which historically capped recovery attempts since July.
If ADA price holds support between $0.60–$0.63, a short-term technical bounce remains possible, but failure to close above $0.70 could lead to retests of the $0.58 zone.
On-Chain Data Points to Persistent Selling Pressure
Futures data confirms subdued speculative activity. Open interest (OI) has fallen to $638 million, down from over $1 billion earlier this month — evidence that traders are closing positions rather than building new ones.
Meanwhile, the funding rate remains slightly positive at 0.0035%, implying a marginal bias toward long positions but weak conviction. This neutral structure suggests neither bulls nor bears are committing aggressively, keeping ADA range-bound in the short term.
On-chain flow data shows a net outflow of $1.21 million on Oct. 17. That means more ADA moved into exchanges than withdrawn — a bearish signal typically associated with holders preparing to sell.
Sustained negative netflows during October indicate continued supply pressure rather than accumulation, reducing the probability of a rapid price reversal toward $1.
The Oct. 17 sell-off coincided with renewed anxiety over U.S. regional banks. Loss disclosures from Zions Bancorporation and Western Alliance reignited credit-risk concerns, while ongoing uncertainty around the U.S. government shutdown and delayed CPI data kept investors cautious.
Although the Federal Reserve has cut rates to 4.00 – 4.25% and hinted at more easing later this year, inflation of 2.9% (August) remains above target. This mixed backdrop continues to suppress demand for high-risk assets like altcoins.