Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near a critical resistance zone as market analyst AlejandroBTC warned that the rally may not hold. He posted a long-term chart showing Bitcoin locked in a rising wedge pattern, a bearish formation that often leads to sharp corrections.
According to his analysis, Bitcoin is struggling against resistance levels that have capped rallies for several years. If the price fails to break higher, the chart suggests a potential breakdown with losses extending deeper into the coming months. Alejandro called this scenario the “highest odds” outcome, dismissing alternative bullish projections as “noise.”
Other analysts disagree. A crypto trader on X added that September has been Bitcoin’s strongest in more than a decade. He noted that when September closes in positive territory, October and November often deliver further gains. Historical seasonality, therefore, supports the bullish case.
Ted, another market analyst, placed this rally within the context of Bitcoin’s longer-term halving cycles. He highlighted that historically, Bitcoin peaks around 1,070 to 1,080 days after each cycle bottom. By that timeline, the next peak would fall in early 2026. He expects this cycle to last even longer due to institutional participation, suggesting a potential top in January or February 2026.
ETF Inflows and Corporate Buys Dominate September
September 2025 has been marked by strong institutional activity. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $5.75 billion in net inflows between September 2 and 19, according to fund flow data. Some days posted record entries, including $741 million on Sept. 10 and $654 million on Sept. 12.
The trend has not been one-directional. Outflows reached $160 million on September 5 and $51 million on September 17. But inflows resumed the following day, with $163 million added on September 18. The data confirms that while volatility remains, institutions have been net accumulators of Bitcoin this month.
Corporate treasuries also continued to accumulate. On Sept. 15, Strategy purchased 525 BTC, bringing its total holdings to nearly 639,000 BTC. Institutions and public companies now hold more than 12% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries.
This institutional demand reduces the amount of Bitcoin available on exchanges, creating structural support for the market. However, reports also show that corporate accumulation has slowed compared to earlier in the year. While totals are at record highs, companies are adding smaller tranches.
Fed Rate Cut Meets Sticky Inflation, Rising Yields
The policy backdrop is also influencing Bitcoin. On Sept. 17, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 4.00–4.25%. It was the first cut since 2024. Lower rates usually help risk assets like Bitcoin because they reduce borrowing costs and weaken the U.S. dollar, encouraging investors to look beyond bonds and cash.
Inflation, however, remains above the Fed’s target. Consumer prices have slowed only modestly, and producer prices dropped just 0.1% in August. If inflation does not decline faster, the Fed will hesitate to cut aggressively. That limits how much support easier policy can provide.
Bond markets add another complication. Yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries have been rising, which makes traditional investments more attractive. Higher yields create competition for Bitcoin by offering investors safer returns. Whether Bitcoin can benefit from the Fed’s rate cut depends on how inflation develops and whether institutions keep up their pace of ETF inflows.
Key Resistance at $120K Defines Bitcoin’s Next Move
Bitcoin’s price action remains within a rising channel that has defined the trend since late 2022. The upper boundary near $120,000 is acting as key resistance. A successful breakout above this level could confirm the bullish case, opening the path toward $125,000–$130,000 in the coming months.
On the downside, immediate support sits at $114,500 (50-day EMA) and $111,700 (100-day EMA). A drop below these levels would shift momentum bearish and strengthen the case for a correction toward $105,000, which marks channel support.
The Relative Strength Index is near 58, a neutral reading that leaves room for movement in either direction. This positions Bitcoin price at a decision point: a breakout could extend the rally, while rejection risks validating the wedge breakdown scenario.