Crypto analyst AltGem Hunter projected that Cardano (ADA) “looks set for $10” if the token breaks above $1.16 and holds the level as support. The roadmap outlined possible price targets at $1.16, $2.68, $5, and $10.
ADA traded at $0.85 on August 22, up 0.2% on the day. The price remains well below $1.16, which has become the immediate level to watch. Technical indicators help show how close ADA is to testing this resistance.
Cardano (ADA) is trading above its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, all clustered between $0.73 and $0.84. Trading above these averages generally signals that momentum is tilted upward.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 52, which is neutral. RSI above 70 suggests overbought markets, while below 30 suggests oversold. At current levels, ADA is neither stretched upward nor downward.
This technical structure leaves $1.16 as the decisive resistance. If ADA clears it, momentum could shift strongly upward. To understand whether the token has enough strength to do so, on-chain data provides insight into how supply is being managed by holders.
Whale Activity and Staking Tighten Supply
On-chain metrics show that large Cardano holders have been increasing their positions. Wallets with $100 million to $1 billion ADA added to their balances, while medium-sized wallets between 1 million and 10 million ADA reduced exposure. This suggests supply is concentrating among larger entities.
Staking has also limited the amount of ADA available for trading. Out of 36.7 billion ADA in circulation, 21.9 billion are staked across 2,757 pools, which locks nearly 59% of the supply. With more than half the tokens tied up, fewer are available on exchanges, a factor that can support higher prices if demand grows.
However, supply constraints alone cannot drive a rally. The strength of Cardano’s ecosystem and user activity determines whether demand can match the supply-side setup.
Cardano DeFi and Network Growth Lag Behind
Cardano’s decentralized finance ecosystem held $389 million in total value locked (TVL) on August 22, according to DefiLlama. This is well below its 2025 peak of more than $700 million and far smaller than competing networks such as Solana and Ethereum.
Daily active addresses hovered around 22,000. Transaction volumes were stable but not expanding, showing that network usage has yet to accelerate. Development activity continues at a steady pace but has moderated compared to earlier in the year. These demand-side signals contrast with the supply-side tightness. Together they form the backdrop for ADA’s next price move.
Cardano’s short-term outlook depends on how it reacts at the $1.16 resistance. A breakout and successful hold above this level could open the way toward $2.68 and later $5. The analyst’s $10 target would require both technical strength and much broader adoption of Cardano’s ecosystem.
If ADA fails to break through $1.16, the price is likely to remain range-bound between $0.55 and $1.00. A breakdown below $0.55 would weaken the outlook further and suggest longer consolidation before any upward move.