More than 1 million Ethereum (ETH) have been withdrawn from crypto exchanges in the past month, according to data shared by analyst Ali (@ali_charts) using CryptoQuant.
Exchange Reserves Drop as Price Climbs
The chart shows Ethereum’s exchange reserves falling from around 19.8 million ETH in mid-June to nearly 18.7 million ETH by late July. This sharp decline coincided with Ethereum’s price climbing toward $3,800, indicating that investors are increasingly moving ETH to self-custody wallets.
CryptoQuant data links declining exchange reserves to growing investor accumulation. Lower reserves often signal reduced selling pressure and rising confidence among holders. Over the past five weeks, this shift aligned with Ethereum’s steady price gains, strengthening its bullish outlook.
This movement follows strong institutional inflows into Ethereum ETFs and recent regulatory clarity surrounding crypto in the U.S. Together, these factors appear to be driving ETH demand and long-term holding behavior while decreasing exchange liquidity.
Ethereum Forms Ascending Channel, Targets 31% Price Rise
On July 28, 2025, Ethereum ETH/USDT displayed an ascending channel pattern on the hourly chart. An ascending channel pattern is a structure where price moves between two parallel upward-sloping lines, showing consistent higher highs and higher lows. Ethereum has followed this pattern since July 18, 2025, steadily climbing with strong support from the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $3,824.
The price action within this channel reflects sustained buying pressure, while repeated rebounds from the lower boundary confirm solid demand zones. As Ethereum approaches the upper trendline, volume spikes indicate growing participation from buyers, often signaling an imminent breakout. If the price closes above this resistance level with confirmation, it could trigger a measured move of 31%, pushing Ethereum from the current $3,858 level toward the projected target of $5,058.
This projection aligns with the height of the channel added to the breakout point, a standard method for estimating upside potential in such patterns. Rising volume near the breakout zone strengthens this outlook, suggesting buyers are gaining control. Furthermore, the EMA line continues to slope upward and act as dynamic support, reinforcing Ethereum’s bullish momentum within the pattern.
If Ethereum sustains its upward trajectory and breaks resistance, it would mark a continuation of its recent trend supported by institutional inflows and broader market confidence. However, if the price fails to maintain support at $3,824 or re-enters the channel after a false breakout, it could invalidate this bullish scenario and shift focus back to the lower boundary for retesting.
Ethereum RSI Shows Neutral Momentum Ahead of Potential Breakout
On July 28, 2025, Ethereum’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 46.34, with its average at 62.46, placing it in a neutral range. The RSI measures momentum by tracking price speed and change between 30 and 70, where levels above 70 indicate overbought conditions and those below 30 signal oversold zones. Ethereum’s RSI recently dropped from near 62 to 46, showing reduced buying pressure after testing higher momentum levels earlier in the day.
Over the past two weeks, RSI movements oscillated between 45 and 70, typical of an uptrend with regular corrections. Peaks near 70 aligned with short-term price highs followed by retracements, while rebounds from mid-40 levels matched renewed buying interest. This behavior supports Ethereum’s ongoing ascending channel pattern.
If RSI holds near current levels and turns upward, it could suggest strengthening buying momentum and support a breakout beyond resistance. However, if RSI dips below 40, it may point to a deeper price correction. At present, Ethereum’s RSI signals balanced market momentum without strong overbought or oversold pressure.