Dogecoin (DOGE) could reach $5, according to a chart-based prediction by analyst Hailey LUNC. The forecast is based on a repeating triangle pattern visible on Dogecoin’s long-term price chart. The same pattern appeared before DOGE’s previous breakouts in 2017, 2020, and 2021. LUNC shared a chart that shows three symmetrical triangles, each followed by a large rally. She believes Dogecoin is now forming a fourth triangle, which could result in a similar upward move.
The chart does not give a specific date for the $5 target. Instead, it shows that each prior triangle took several months to complete. After each consolidation, DOGE’s price surged several hundred percent. LUNC suggests that the same structure could now send DOGE far above current levels. At the time of the prediction, Dogecoin was trading around $0.238, so a move to $5 would mean a gain of more than 2,000%. To assess if this target is realistic, it is necessary to examine the market conditions supporting Dogecoin now.
Dogecoin is trading above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages. The 200-day average is often used to measure long-term trends. DOGE is currently holding above that level, which suggests the trend may be turning positive.
The MACD indicator, which measures momentum, has also flipped bullish. Price is rising, and trading volume on July 18 reached $5.67 billion. That is the highest daily volume for DOGE in several weeks. A rise in both price and volume is usually seen as a strong technical signal. This setup is similar to the start of previous rallies.
Large Holders Are Increasing Their Positions
On-chain data shows that wallets holding between 1 million and 1 billion DOGE have increased their holdings. These wallets now control over 51% of the supply, up from around 49.8% earlier this year. At the same time, the share held by smaller holders has decreased to 47.82%. This suggests that large holders, often called whales, are buying more DOGE while retail investors are reducing exposure. In previous cycles, such accumulation by whales happened before major price increases. These holders often act early and tend to hold through longer trends.
Furthermore, Dogecoin’s price is moving closely with Bitcoin. The 30-day correlation between DOGE and BTC is currently at 0.96. This means that if Bitcoin goes up, DOGE usually follows, and the same is true when Bitcoin drops. In past bull markets, Dogecoin’s biggest rallies came only after Bitcoin had already gained strength. This suggests that DOGE’s current uptrend may not continue if Bitcoin stalls. A highly correlated asset may not rally on its own. This limits the chances of an independent breakout unless Bitcoin also rises sharply.
Derivatives Data Shows Bullish Positioning, But Risk Remains
DOGE’s open interest in the futures market has increased. Funding rates are also positive. This shows that more traders are betting on the price going up. While this confirms bullish sentiment, it also introduces risk.
When funding is too high, long positions become crowded. This often leads to sudden price drops if traders start to exit at the same time. Such events have happened before in the crypto market. A healthy rally needs balanced sentiment, not just leveraged positions.
On-chain activity does not show strong growth. On July 17, Dogecoin had about 51,800 daily active addresses. In 2021, this number was often above 800,000. The number of transactions has also dropped. Daily transaction volume was around 10.29 billion DOGE, and transaction count stood at 383,000. These numbers are well below the levels seen during past rallies. For a rally to $5, Dogecoin would likely need rising user demand. At the moment, the price is rising, but the number of users is not.
Dogecoin Holders Are in Profit But Not Yet Selling
The MVRV ratio for Dogecoin is 51.14%. This metric shows how much profit the average holder has. A value above zero means most holders are in profit. In previous rallies, MVRV values above 130% often led to selling. At 51%, there is still room for the price to go higher before holders start taking profits in large numbers. However, the current level does not suggest that DOGE is undervalued either. It shows a moderate profit environment with no clear signal of euphoria or panic.
Even though DOGE’s volume rose on July 18, it is still below the levels seen during its 2021 rally. When Dogecoin reached $0.73 in May 2021, daily volume often exceeded $15 billion. Today’s $5.67 billion is strong, but not yet comparable. For DOGE to reach $5, volume may need to rise much higher. That would require strong inflows from retail traders or institutions. It would also require more attention from the broader market, which is currently divided among many competing meme coins.
DOGE’s $5 Target Needs Support Beyond Chart Patterns
The chart pattern shared by Hailey LUNC shows similarities to earlier breakouts. The technical setup is bullish. Large holders are buying, and momentum indicators confirm strength. However, network activity is not improving. Fewer people are using DOGE than during its previous rallies. The price is rising because of technical signals and whale positioning, but there is no growth in daily usage or transactions. Without that, the rally may not last. The $5 target is possible on a long timeframe, but it lacks support from current fundamentals.