Solana’s native token, SOL, dropped 14% in one week. On Monday, it hit resistance at $158. By Wednesday, it had fallen to $143. The drop raised concerns among traders who now doubt SOL can retest the $200 level anytime soon. At the same time, interest in leveraged positions rose, showing increased speculative activity during the decline.
Open Interest and Funding Rates Signal Bearish Sentiment
As of June 18, open interest in Solana (SOL) futures climbed to 45.7 million SOL, based on CoinGlass data. This marks a 19% rise since mid-May, when open interest hovered around 38.5 million SOL. The increase reflects growing speculative activity, even as prices declined. In dollar terms, the total value of these open positions stands at approximately $6.7 billion.
Each long position is matched by a short, but the level of leverage used can vary. Despite the rise in open interest, sentiment has turned more bearish. The funding rate for SOL perpetual futures dropped to 0% on June 18, indicating that short sellers no longer pay a premium and that demand for long positions has stalled.
For the past three months, SOL funding rates have consistently stayed below the 15% annualized threshold that usually signals strong bullish sentiment. Even during SOL’s rally to $185 in mid-May, leveraged long interest failed to pick up. Without renewed confidence from buyers, Solana could remain vulnerable to additional selling pressure.
Solana Network Activity Stalls After January Peak
Solana’s funding rates over the past two weeks confirm the market’s uncertainty. Between June 4 and June 18, the funding rate for SOL perpetual futures mostly stayed below the neutral 5% threshold. Although it briefly touched the 10% mark around June 12, it repeatedly fell back toward 0% or below.
As of June 18, the rate hovered near zero, signaling a sharp decline in demand for long positions. This lack of positive funding shows traders are no longer willing to pay a premium to hold bullish bets. Combined with high open interest, this points to a build-up of short positions and weak overall sentiment.
Meanwhile, Solana network activity has stalled. Total value locked (TVL) remains flat around $10 billion. Weekly DApp revenue, once over $100 million between November 2024 and February 2025, has now fallen below $40 million. Earlier excitement came from meme coin launches, including the Trump-themed TRUMP token. That launch surprised traders, as Trump-linked projects had previously favored Ethereum.
SOL ETF Approval Could Change Outlook
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may approve a SOL spot ETF, which could become a key short-term driver for the token. However, long-term adoption of tokenized assets on Solana may matter more. A Cantor Fitzgerald report said Solana outperforms Ethereum in most technical areas and predicted it may become a common treasury asset for companies.
According to the report, Solana offers stronger developer support and simpler operations compared to Ethereum’s layer-2 systems. Still, without a major shift in investor sentiment, the SOL price may stay under pressure. A potential ETF, rising adoption, and developer interest could reverse this trend—but for now, market confidence remains weak.
Solana RSI Shows Weak Momentum Ahead of June 2025 Close
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Solana (SOL) stands at 41.11 as of June 19, 2025, based on the 14-day period. This value remains below the neutral level of 50, signaling bearish momentum. The RSI measures the speed and change of price movements. A reading below 50 indicates that sellers currently dominate the market.
The RSI’s moving average (yellow line) is also at 44.00, which further confirms the weakness in buying pressure. Over the past month, RSI values consistently dropped from near 60 in early May to the low 40s in June, showing a loss of upward momentum.
RSI values below 30 typically suggest oversold conditions, while values above 70 imply overbought conditions. SOL is not oversold yet, but it is moving closer to that range. If the RSI dips further below 40 without a price rebound, it may increase the risk of extended downside or a potential reversal zone.
Traders often use RSI trends with other indicators like price action or volume. Given the recent price rejection at $158 and funding rates falling to 0%, the low RSI supports the case for cautious sentiment around SOL in the near term.
Ichimoku and EMA Analysis: SOL Shows Weak Bearish Trend Below Cloud
The daily chart for Solana (SOL) as of June 19, 2025, uses Ichimoku Clouds and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to highlight current price weakness. SOL trades at $146.04, which is below both the 50-day EMA ($155.54) and the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud (~$157), indicating a bearish setup.
Source: TradingView
The price remains under the cloud, which signals a weak bearish trend. In Ichimoku analysis, trading below the cloud suggests downward momentum. The future cloud is also flat and thin, offering little support for a trend reversal. Additionally, the conversion and base lines are not showing upward crosses, further confirming the lack of bullish signals.
The chart’s backtesting data shows 11 trades, with only 3 wins and 8 losses, giving a 27% win rate. This low success rate reflects choppy conditions and reinforces that bullish entries have been unreliable in the current structure.
With SOL below both the Ichimoku cloud and the 50-day EMA, the setup leans bearish. Unless price breaks above the cloud with increased volume, this weakness may continue.