- BTC could hit a new ATH in the next three months, per a macro analyst.
- The True MVRV value was at 1.7, suggesting slight room for growth before BTC hits a local peak.
Bitcoin [BTC] has consolidated around $105K for four days, signaling a buildup for an extra rally or a likely pullback.
But analysts have made price calls for $135K-$200K in the next 3–6 months, citing improving macro front.
On the 12th of May, BTC dumped 4% from $105K to $100.7K, a typical sell-the-news after the US-China trade deal.
However, the asset reversed the losses on the 13th of May after a modest 0.2% month-on-month April CPI inflation print, against the expected 0.3%.
The annual rate came in at 2.3%, falling below the forecasted 2.4%, a positive outlook on Fed rate cut expectations from Q3.
Low inflation, positive macro to fuel BTC?
In an email statement, 21Shares crypto investment specialist David Hernandez told AMBCrypto,
“If this trajectory (easing inflation, nation-state adoption) continues, price targets of $200,000 by year-end now seem increasingly realistic.”
Likewise, Timothy Peterson, a BTC network analyst, noted that the US-China trade deal triggered the VIX (volatility index) to drop to a ‘normal’ 30-year average.
The VIX decline and lower inflation were a perfect set-up for a ‘risk-on’ rally, added Peterson.
“Inflation just came in lower than expected. This will be a ‘risk on’ environment for the foreseeable future.”
Source: X
For those unfamiliar, VIX tracks future price swings and, by extension, the market fear gauge.
Simply put, with the US-China tariff war out of the way, market fear (higher VIX) has been replaced by risk-on (lower VIX) sentiment.
In an X post on the 1st of May, Peterson highlighted that a potential VIX dip to 18 could push BTC to $107K in 3 weeks and +$135K in 100 days.
“A continuation of this path, and VIX <= 18, implies Bitcoin at $107k in 2-3 weeks and $135,000+ in 100 days.”
What’s next in the short term?
However, the jump to a new ATH may not be a smooth ride, according to a report by crypto research firm Swissblock.
The firm cited past BTC price momentum and stated a potential correction at $104K-$106K before a rebound to a record level was likely.
“Can $BTC push to uncharted territory? A reset could fuel the next leg.”
Source: Swissblock
The attached chart showed that BTC was in full bullish momentum, but current levels also marked a retracement in the last November-December rally.
But True MVRV, a valuation metric that flagged early and late 2024 local peaks and bottoms, disagreed with the Swissblock outlook.
Source: CryptoQuant
The metric’s reading was at 1.7, slightly far from the potential local peak level of 2. In other words, BTC still had room for growth before a likely massive pullback.
On the Options market, traders positioned themselves for either scenario.
In the past 24 hours, $95K put options (bearish bets) were the largest by trading volume, while calls for $105K and $115K (bullish bets) ranked second and third.
Put differently, traders expected BTC to hit $115K in May but were prepared for a potential dip to $95K.
Source: Deribit
Overall, the positive macro environment could fuel further risk-on sentiment and push BTC to a new ATH. However, there were still chances of BTC dipping below $100K.