A look into Ethereum’s “Triple” Halving effect
Imagine Saylor's Microstrategy spent $4B to buy $ETH instead of BTC.
Twice.
And then again and again. Twice a year, in perpetuity.The Merge at current ETH price is equivalent of two Saylor-sized ETH buys every year.
A short thread on the impact of the "Triple Halvening". pic.twitter.com/yPMsQr3iJM
— korpi (@korpi87) August 24, 2022
The Ethereum Merge (switch from PoW to PoS) is estimated to take place on Sep, 14.
One of the benefits of PoS is $ETH issuance reduction by 90%.
This is equivalent of 3 BTC halvings, hence "Triple Halvening".
— korpi (@korpi87) August 24, 2022
Current $ETH issuance in PoW is 5.5M ETH/year.
With 13.3M ETH staked, it will be reduced to 0.6M ETH/year after The Merge.
4.9M new ETH won't hit the market every year!
— korpi (@korpi87) August 24, 2022
If The Merge didn't happen, how much money per year would be needed to buy 4.9M $ETH?
ETH at $1700: 4.9M * $1700 = $8.3B
This is twice as much money as Saylor spent in total to buy BTC.
The Merge at current ETH price is equivalent of two Saylor-sized ETH buys every year.
— korpi (@korpi87) August 24, 2022
When ETH price goes up, more Saylor-sized buys (SSB) are required:
$2000: 4.9M * $2000 = $9.8B => 2.4 SSB
$3000: 4.9M * $3000 = $14.7B => 3.6 SSB
$4000: 4.9M * $4000 = $19.6B => 4.8 SSBEvery year, in perpetuity…
(assuming the amount of staked ETH doesn't change) pic.twitter.com/Z70pXb5ahb
— korpi (@korpi87) August 24, 2022
Even when the amount of staked $ETH increases, the annual issuance won't go up by a lot.
ETH issuance reduction vs PoW will still be substantial.
Many Saylor-sized ETH buys would be needed to reproduce such supply growth reduction in PoW era. pic.twitter.com/lHXetPkbWG
— korpi (@korpi87) August 24, 2022
Last but not least:
Buys remove coins from the supply temporarily.
– Microstrategy will likely sell its BTC in the future.
– Saylor-sized ETH buys would also end up on the market at some point.On the contrary, ETH Issuance Reduction lowers the supply growth permanently.
— korpi (@korpi87) August 24, 2022
The Merge activates a Greedy Eternal Multi-Saylor-Sized Buying Monster that relentlessly accumulates ETH and never sells.
And we think that The Merge is already priced in? pic.twitter.com/PefXjNYdFj
— korpi (@korpi87) August 24, 2022
If you want to learn more about The Merge, read this:https://t.co/CZ8B25nOsx
— korpi (@korpi87) August 24, 2022
Crypto trends that might start next bull run
1/ The next major bull market will be driven by technology and trends currently being built out.
However, not all technology or trends are equally valuable.
Let's explore the crypto trends that could inspire the next bull run. ???? pic.twitter.com/VSOUL5ckiw
— Messari (@MessariCrypto) August 25, 2022
2/ Crypto trends can be evaluated in a framework that considers:
+Novelty
+10x Value
+Total Addressable Market (TAM)
+Value Capture
+CompetitionWith that framework in mind, each of the following trends can be assessed for its ability to catalyze a true bull market.
— Messari (@MessariCrypto) August 25, 2022
3/ Application protocols have played second fiddle to network protocols.
However, the competitive dynamics have subtly shifted.
New ecosystems are going to great engineering lengths to enable EVM compatibility just to allow application protocols to deploy with low effort. pic.twitter.com/ls8CNr0ylR
— Messari (@MessariCrypto) August 25, 2022
4/ Decentralized Social gives people on-chain reputations, organizations (DAOs), and ownership of their content.
Content ownership is key as it introduces a way for people to finally capture the value they create.
The result is a rearchitected flow of value on the internet. pic.twitter.com/hUVxqZOilt
— Messari (@MessariCrypto) August 25, 2022
5/ Web3 Gaming is ultimately about giving players ownership of their in-game digital items and utilizing tokens to create in-game economies.
The core thesis is that players with a stake in the game feel more attached to the game’s success and are more willing to invest. pic.twitter.com/mduUwAtHxx
— Messari (@MessariCrypto) August 25, 2022